Document Type : Original Article


1 Master of Entrepreneurship Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran


The purpose of this article is to analyze the robustness strategies for businesses that intend to have a successful performance in the future of Iran's smart agriculture sector. For this purpose, using an integrated foresight method based on scenario development, alternative futures for Iran's agriculture were extracted for a ten-year period (2032). The methods of Global Business Network (GBN), Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and MICMAC were used. Four main drivers were identified, which are cooperation and participation through Strong national and local institutions, versus lobby and pressure groups, as well as the development of technological infrastructure and innovation growth versus the immaturity of the innovation ecosystem. With the meaningful combination of drivers, three possible and meaningful paths to the future of Iran's agriculture were extracted according to the opinion of experts: smart agriculture, state agriculture and traditional agriculture. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies were analyzed by in-depth interviews with experts as well as a library search that can guarantee strategic robustness in any scenario in the next 10 years. The main result at the macro level is that cooperation and partnership play a major role in shaping the future of Iran's agriculture, as well as strategic robustness, due to their key role in integrating resources and capabilities. Finally, by applying robustness criteria, the robustness strategies were ranked. Strategic collaborations and the development of practical innovations were the most robustness strategies, and independent investment and the development of advanced innovations were recognized as the weakest strategies.


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