Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Technology Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

3 Professor, University Complex of Management and Industrial Engineering, Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran


Researchers have stated that the main cause of car accidents is human error. Autonomous vehicle or driverless car can probably eliminate human error. They can also bring other benefits such as resource efficiency and reduced traffic. Many companies, such as Google and Tesla, have moved into the development of autonomous vehicle. Therefore, it is necessary to provide technological, social and economic infrastructure from now on. The purpose of this study was to write a scenario of different situations of autonomous vehicle. The research method was that first the factors affecting this technology were extracted from the literature review and these factors were used as the basis for interviews with experts. Experts removed, approved, or added these factors. Content analysis of expert interviews was performed with MAXQDA software and then key effective factors were identified by MICMAC software through Cross-Impact Balances. In the next step, different scenarios were considered for these key factors with SCENARIO WIZARD software. Findings of the study were that four scenarios were proposed by SCENARIO WIZARD software, one of which was a favorable scenario, an unfavorable scenario and two static scenarios. The favorable scenario of the analysis and suggestions on how to achieve it were also presented. Knowing this favorable scenario from now on, we can provide the necessary preparation for the favorable future of autonomous vehicle so that the best of this new technology can be implemented in the country.


[1] Dingus, T. A., Neale, V. L., Klauer, S. G., Petersen, A. D., & Carroll, R. J. (2006). “The development of a naturalistic data collection system to perform critical incident analysis, An investigation of safety and fatigue issues in long-haul trucking”. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 38, 1127–1136.
[2] Klauer, S.G., et al.(2006): “The impact of driver inattention on near crash/crash risk: an analysis using the 100-car naturalistic driving study data”. Analysis, 226 (2006).
 [3] NHTSA (2017b, 6 October ). “USDOT releases 2016 fatal traffic crash data”. Retrieved from https://www.nhtsa. Gov/press-releases/usdot-releases-2016-fatal-traffic-crash-data.
 [4] NHTSA (2012). “2010 motor vehicle crashes: overview”. US Department of Transportation, Washington, DC, Research Note, DOT HS 811, 552."
 [5] KPMG, )2012(. “Self-driving cars: The next revolution. New York”. Retrieved from Documents/self-driving-cars-next-revolution.pdf.
[6] kalantari, E., Montazer, G., Ghazinoory, S. (2021). “Structural Modeling of Properties and Factors Affecting Science and Technology Collaborative Policy Network in Iran”. Management Research in Iran, 25(3), 1-24.
 [7] Jorge, D., Correia, G., Barnhart, C. )2014(.“Comparing optimal relocation operations with simulated relocation policies in one-way carsharing systems”. IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst. 15 (4), 1667–1675.
 [8] Spieser, K., Treleaven, K., Zhang, R., Frazzoli, E., Morton, D., Pavone, M., (2014). “Toward a systematic approach to the design and evaluation of automated mobility-ondemand systems, A case study in Singapore”. In Road Vehicle Automation. Springer, pp. 229–245.
 [9] Manyika J, Chui M, Bughin J, Dobbs R, Bisson P, Marrs A. (2013). “Disruptive technologies: advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy”. McKinsey Global Institute New York.
[10] Khamseh, A., Pilvari, N., Neyrizi, Z. (2019). Assessment and Prioritization of Effective Factors on Technology Intelligence in the Power Plant Industry (Case Study: MAPNA Power Plants Construction & Development Company, MD-1). Future study Management, 30(116), 87-98.
 [11] Gora.P, Rub. I. (2016). “Traffic Models for Self-driving Connected Cars”. Transportation Research Procedia, 14 (2016) 2207–2216. Doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.236.
 [12] Jorge, D., Correia, G., Barnhart, C.(2014). “Comparing optimal relocation operations with simulated relocation policies in one-way carsharing systems”. IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst. 15 (4), 1667–1675.
 [13] Bonneau, V., Yi, H., Probst, L., Pedersen, B. and Lonkeu, O.-K. (2017). “Autonomous cars: a big opportunity for European industry”, Digital Transformation Monitor (European Commission), available at: big-opportunity-european-industry (accessed 1 June 2017).
 [14] Ahn Jinsoo., Kim, Young Yong., and Kim, Ronny Yongho., “A Novel WLAN Vehicle-To-Anything (V2X) ”. Channel Access Scheme for IEEE 802.11p-Based Next-Generation Connected Car Networks, Appl. Sci. 2018, 8, 2112; doi:10.3390/app8112112.
[15] See Madeleine de Cock Buning, Lucky Belder & Roeland W. de Bruin. (2016). Working paper: “Mapping the Legal Framework for the introduction into Society of Robots as Autonomous Intelligent Systems”, at p. 3-4, available on the Internet at http://www.caaai .eu/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Mapping-L_N-fw-for-AIS.pdf (last accessed on 28 January 2016).
[16] US Department of Transportation.( 2015). “Connected Vehicle Frequently Asked Questions”. Retrieved Oct. 2015 from,
[17] Zanchin, B.C.; Adamshuk, R.; Santos, M.M.; Collazos, K.S.(2017). “On the instrumentation and classification of autonomous cars”. In Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC), Banff, AB, Canada, 5–8 October 2017; pp. 2631–2636.
[18] Rosenzweig, J.; Bartl, M.(2021) “A Review and Analysis of Literature on Autonomous Driving”. Available online: https://michaelbartl. com/wp-content/uploads/Lit-Review-AD_MoI.pdf (accessed on 20 January 2021).
[19] Martin, B. R. (1991). “Foresight in science and technology. Technology analysis & strategic management”. 1(1), 119-111.
 [20] UNIDO, Turkish Scientific Research Council, Technology Foresight for Organizer Training Course for Black Sea States cooperation Countries and the Newly Independent economic. Monzavi, Masoud, Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute, Defense Science and Technology Futures Research Center, Tehran, Iran. 2013.
 [21] Schwartz, P. (2012). “Art of Fiction: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World”. (Aziz Alizadeh's
Translation), Defense Research Educational Research Institute, Tehran.
[22] Szigeti, Szilard., Csiszar, Csaba, Foldes, David.(2017). “Information Management of Demand-Responsive Mobility Service Based on Autonomous Vehicles”. 10th International Scientific Conference Transbaltica 2017: Transportaion Science Technology.
 [23] Lonita, Silviu,. “Autonomous vehicles: from paradigms to technology”. IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 252 (2017) 012098 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/252/1/012098.
 [24] Barabas, I., Todorut, A., Cordos, and N., Molea, A. (2017). “Current Challenges in autonomous driving”. JOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 252(2017) 012096 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/252/1/012096.
 [25] Geistfeld, Mark A. (2017). “A Roadmap for Autonomous Vehicles: State Tort Liability, Automobile Insurance, and Federal Safety Regulation”.(2017). DOI: Copyright © 2017 California Law Review, Inc. California Law Review, Inc. (CLR) is a California nonprofit corporation. CLR and the authors are solely responsible for the content of their publications.
 [26] Haboucha, C. J., Ishaq, R., & Shiftan, Y. (2017). “User preferences regarding autonomous vehicles”. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 78, 37–49.
    [27] Sardari, A., Karampour, A., Aghamousa Tehrani, M. (2021). “Recognizing Facilitator factors affecting export of technology-oriented goods”. Management Research in Iran, 20(4), 1-22.
 [28] Ahmed Khan, Junaid., Ghamri-Doudane, Yacine., Botvich, Dmitri.(2016). “Autonomous Identification and Optimal Selection of Popular Smart Vehicles for Urban Sensing” . An Information-centric Approach, 0018-9545 (c) 2016 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission. See for more information. 
 [29] Fraedrich, Eva., Heinrichs, Dirk., Bahamonde-Birke, Francisco J., and  Cyganski, Rita.(2018). “Autonomous driving, the built environment and policy Implications”. Transportation Research Part A,