سناریو نویسی برای آینده خودروی بدون راننده

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته دکتری مدیریت تکنولوژی،گروه مدیریت تکنولوژی،دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی،تهران، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 استاد، مجتمع دانشگاهی مدیریت و مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه صنعتی مالک اشتر، تهران، ایران

چکیده

محققین اعلام نموده اند که دلیل اصلی تصادفات خودروها، خطای انسانی می باشد. احتمالا خودروهای خودران می توانند خطاهای انسانی را حذف نمایند. همچنین می توانند باعث مزیت های دیگری از قبیل بهره وری منابع و کاهش ترافیک شوند. شرکت های زیادی از قبیل گوگل و تسلا به سمت توسعه خودروی خودران رفته اند. بنابراین لازم است زیرساخت های فناورانه، اجتماعی، اقتصادی از الان فراهم گردد. هدف از این تحقیق، سناریونویسی وضعیت های مختلف خودروی خودران بود. روش تحقیق به این صورت بود که ابتدا از پیشینه ادبیات، عوامل موثر بر این فناوری استخراج و این عوامل به عنوان پایه مصاحبه با خبرگان قرار گرفت. خبرگان این عوامل را حذف، تایید و یا بر آنها اضافه نمودند. تحلیل محتوی مصاحبه خبرگان با نرم افزار مکس کیو دی آ انجام و سپس عوامل موثر کلیدی با تحلیل اثر متقابل توسط نرم افزار میک مک مشخص گردید. در گام بعدی برای همین عوامل کلیدی موثر با نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد، سناریوهای مختلف در نظر گرفته شد. یافته های پژوهش این بود که چهار سناریو توسط نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد پیشنهاد گردید که یکی از آنها سناریوی مطلوب، یک سناریو نامطلوب و دو سناریو نیز ایستا بود. سناریوی مطلوب تحلیل و پیشنهادات نحوه رسیدن به آن نیز ارائه گردید. با دانستن این سناریوی مطلوب از الان می توان برای آینده مطلوب خودروی خودران، آمادگی لازم را فراهم نمود تا بهترین حالت از این فناوری جدید در سطح کشور جاری گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Scenario Writing for the Future of Driverless Cars

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Hanifi 1
  • Adel Azar 2
  • Manuchehr Manteghi 3
1 Department of Technology Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, University Complex of Management and Industrial Engineering, Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Researchers have stated that the main cause of car accidents is human error. Autonomous vehicle or driverless car can probably eliminate human error. They can also bring other benefits such as resource efficiency and reduced traffic. Many companies, such as Google and Tesla, have moved into the development of autonomous vehicle. Therefore, it is necessary to provide technological, social and economic infrastructure from now on. The purpose of this study was to write a scenario of different situations of autonomous vehicle. The research method was that first the factors affecting this technology were extracted from the literature review and these factors were used as the basis for interviews with experts. Experts removed, approved, or added these factors. Content analysis of expert interviews was performed with MAXQDA software and then key effective factors were identified by MICMAC software through Cross-Impact Balances. In the next step, different scenarios were considered for these key factors with SCENARIO WIZARD software. Findings of the study were that four scenarios were proposed by SCENARIO WIZARD software, one of which was a favorable scenario, an unfavorable scenario and two static scenarios. The favorable scenario of the analysis and suggestions on how to achieve it were also presented. Knowing this favorable scenario from now on, we can provide the necessary preparation for the favorable future of autonomous vehicle so that the best of this new technology can be implemented in the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Autonomous Vehicle
  • Driverless Car
  • Scenario Writing
  • Technology Foresight

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پژوهش های مدیریت در ایران
دوره 26، شماره 3
مهر 1401
صفحه 118-143

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