Authors
Abstract
Predictions about depletion of fossil fuels, global warming and climate change, and energy portfolio diversification policies are key drivers for deployment of renewable energies for power generation. Fossil fuel exporting countries have also developed policies to increase share of renewable energies in their energy mix. Variety of feasible renewable prime energy resources in Iran, different commercial technologies to convert them to electricity, various stakeholder expectations from renewable power deployment, and multiple technical, financial and environmental constraints make such decision making a complex problem. Authors have developed a multi-objective optimization of Iran Renewable Portfolio. The solution specifies optimized share of solar photovoltaic (PV), land wind, small hydro, geothermal and biomass (waste and sewage) in deploying 5,000 MW renewable power, stated in 6th Economic, Social and Cultural Development Plan of Iran. Weight of goals and data for technical knowledge and social impacts have been obtained through primary research utilizing Analytical Hierarchical Process among Iranian experts.
Keywords
- [1] Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R.M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., Manning, A.C., et al. Global carbon budget 2017. Earth Syst Sci Data: Copernicus Publications; 2018. p. 405-448. [2] Kachoee, M.S., Salimi, M., Amidpour, M. The long-term scenario and greenhouse gas effects cost-benefit analysis of iran's electricity sector. Energy. 2018;143:585-596. [3] Farmad, M., Shafiei, E., Aryanpur, V., Goodarzi Rad, R., Darab, S. Long-term planning of iran energy sector development. In: Ministry of Energy of Iran, editor.: Deputy for Planning and Economic Affairs; 2014. [4] Park, N.-B., Yun, S.-J., Jeon, E.-C. An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the korean electricity sector. Energy Policy. 2013;52:288-296. [5] Büyüközkan, G., Güleryüz, S. Evaluation of renewable energy resources in turkey using an integrated mcdm approach with linguistic interval fuzzy preference relations. Energy. 2017;123:149-163. [6] Troldborg, M., Heslop, S., Hough, R.L. Assessing the sustainability of renewable energy technologies using multi-criteria analysis: Suitability of approach for national-scale assessments and associated uncertainties. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2014;39:1173-1184. [7] Evans, A., Strezov, V., Evans, T.J. Assessment of sustainability indicators for renewable energy technologies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2009;13(5):1082-1088. [8] Amer, M., Daim, T.U. Selection of renewable energy technologies for a developing county: A case of pakistan. Energy for Sustainable Development. 2011;15(4):420-435. [9] Ren, J., Sovacool, B.K. Prioritizing low-carbon energy sources to enhance china’s energy security. Energy Conversion and Management. 2015;92:129-136. [10] Al Garni, H., Kassem, A., Awasthi, A., Komljenovic, D., Al-Haddad, K. A multicriteria decision making approach for evaluating renewable power generation sources in saudi arabia. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments. 2016;16:137-150. [11] Park, S.Y., Yun, B.-Y., Yun, C.Y., Lee, D.H., Choi, D.G. An analysis of the optimum renewable energy portfolio using the bottom–up model: Focusing on the electricity generation sector in south korea. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2016;53:319-329. [12] Kachoee, M.S., Amidpour, M. The scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential in the iranian electricity sector using leap model. Iranian Journal of Energy. 2016;19(3):101-116. (in Persian). [13] Wang, J.-J., Jing, Y.-Y., Zhang, C.-F., Zhao, J.-H. Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2009;13(9):2263-2278. [14] Ren, J., Dong, L. Evaluation of electricity supply sustainability and security: Multi-criteria decision analysis approach. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2018;172:438-453. [15] Tran, T.T.D., Smith, A.D. Incorporating performance-based global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis into lcoe calculations for emerging renewable energy technologies. Applied Energy. 2018;216:157-171. [16] Maxim, A. Sustainability assessment of electricity generation technologies using weighted multi-criteria decision analysis. Energy Policy. 2014;65:284-297. [17] Çolak, M., Kaya, İ. Prioritization of renewable energy alternatives by using an integrated fuzzy mcdm model: A real case application for turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2017;80:840-853. [18] Kaya, T., Kahraman, C. Multicriteria decision making in energy planning using a modified fuzzy topsis methodology. Expert Systems with Applications. 2011;38(6):6577-6585. [19] Babaee, L., Rabieh, M., Nikbakhsh, E., Esmaeili, M. Multi-objective mathematical model for green supplier selection (case study: Supply chain of iran khodro company). Modern Researches in Decision Making. 2017;2(2):51-83. (in Persian). [20] Mansoori, S., Bozorgi-Amiri, A., Bayatloo, F. A bi-objective robust optimization model for emergency blood supply network design under uncertainty. Modern Researches in Decision Making. 2018;3(2):249-274. (in Persian). [21] Mehregan, M.R. Multiple objective decision making. Tehran: University of Tehran Press 2013. (in Persian). [22] Baumol, W.J. Management models and industrial applications of linear programming, volume i, by abraham charnes and william w. Cooper. John wiley and sons, new york, 1961. Xxiii + 467 pp. $11.75. 1962;9(1):63-64. [23] Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Organization of Iran (SATBA). List of renewable and sustainable power plants of iran. Ministry of Energy of Iran; 2018 September. (in Persian). [24] Acevedo, M.F. Introduction to renewable power systems and the environment with r. 1 ^ed. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press; 2018 July 19, 2018. 457 p. [25] Saaty, T.L. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. 2008;1(1):83-98. [26] International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable power generation costs in 20172018 January 2018. 160 p. [27] Greenpeace International, GWEC, EREC. Energy [r]evolution 2012: A sustainable world energy outlook. Global Wind Energy Council; European Renewable Energy Council,; 2013 2012. [28] National Renewable Energy Laboratory. 2018 annual technology baseline (atb): Cost and performance data for electricity generation technologies. In: Laboratory NRE, editor. 2018. [29] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Special report on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2011. [30] Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Organization of Iran (SATBA). Issued renewable power plant permits (november 6). In: Ministry of Energy of Iran, editor. Tehran 2018. (in Persian).
)