نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت تولید و عملیات، گروه مدیریت صنعتی و مالی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، پردیس فارابی دانشگاه تهران
2 استاد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 استادیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی و مالی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، پردیس فارابی دانشگاه تهران
4 هیأت‌علمی، رئیس گروه پژوهشی اقتصاد برق و انرژی، پژوهشگاه نیرو
چکیده
چشم‌انداز پایان سوخت‌های فسیلی، گرمایش آب و هوایی و تغییرات اقلیمی ناشی از آن و سیاست‌های تنوع‌بخشی به منابع تأمین انرژی از علت‌های استقبال بسیاری از کشورها از انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر هستند. در همین راستا کشورهای تولیدکننده نفت و گاز برنامه‌ریزی‌هایی را برای افزایش سهم انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر در سبد تولید برق خود کرده‌اند. تنوع انرژی‌های اولیه تجدیدپذیر، وجود فناوری‌های مختلف تبدیل آن‌ها به برق و ویژگی‌های مختلف هر یک و همچنین انتظارات فنی، مالی و زیست‌محیطی گوناگون، تصمیم‌گیری درباره این‌که برق پاک مورد نظر از چه منابعی تولید شود را پیچیده می‌کند. این پژوهش به دنبال ارائه و حل یک مدل برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی برای به دست آوردن سهم به نسبت بهینه توان (ظرفیت نصبی) هر یک از انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر خورشیدی (فتوولتاییک)، بادی، برق‌آبی کوچک، زمین‌گرمایی و زیست‌توده در تولید برق پاک ایران است به گونه‌ای که هزینه‌ها، اشتغال‌زایی، دانش فنی، بازده فنی و پیامدهای اجتماعی آن بهینه باشد. مدل در چهارچوب برنامه ششم توسعه ایران و بودجه‌های مصوب مجلس شورای اسلامی حل شده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
A Multi-objective Optimization Model for Iran's Renewable Power Portfolio
نویسندگان [English]
- Ashkan Niusha 1
- Adel Azar 2
- Hashem Moazzez 3
- Kioumars Heydari 4
چکیده [English]
Predictions about depletion of fossil fuels, global warming and climate change, and energy portfolio diversification policies are key drivers for deployment of renewable energies for power generation. Fossil fuel exporting countries have also developed policies to increase share of renewable energies in their energy mix. Variety of feasible renewable prime energy resources in Iran, different commercial technologies to convert them to electricity, various stakeholder expectations from renewable power deployment, and multiple technical, financial and environmental constraints make such decision making a complex problem. Authors have developed a multi-objective optimization of Iran Renewable Portfolio. The solution specifies optimized share of solar photovoltaic (PV), land wind, small hydro, geothermal and biomass (waste and sewage) in deploying 5,000 MW renewable power, stated in 6th Economic, Social and Cultural Development Plan of Iran. Weight of goals and data for technical knowledge and social impacts have been obtained through primary research utilizing Analytical Hierarchical Process among Iranian experts.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Renewable Portfolio Share (RPS)
- multi-objective optimization
- Iran
- Energy planning
- Sustainable Energy
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