Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
M.Sc. in Computer Engineering – Artificial Intelligence, Department of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Computer Engineering and Information Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology, Iran.
2
M.Sc. in Economic Systems Planning, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Iran.
3
PhD in Entrepreneurship, Department of Management and Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, .Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
4
Ph.D. in Science and Technology Policy Making, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
Abstract
This study analyzes the heterogeneous impacts of the crisis induced by the military attack against Iran in February 2026 on the economic activities of firms. The objective of this research is to classify businesses based on two dimensions: “the criticality of the product/service from the consumer’s perspective during crises” and “operational risk and supply chain vulnerability,” thereby proposing tailored managerial and policy solutions for each scenario. Methodologically, this study is applied in terms of objective and employs a multi-stage design with a predominantly qualitative approach, supplemented by a descriptive survey stage. Data were gathered through structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with participants possessing relevant experience and expertise. The findings indicate that, from the participants’ perspective, firms supplying essential goods and services with lower dependency on complex supply chains are in a more favorable position to maintain business continuity. Conversely, firms facing declining demand, transportation disruptions, and infrastructural instability exhibit higher operational vulnerability. Based on this classification, managerial strategies were developed across four distinct quadrants within the framework of three interpretive logics: “dynamic adaptability,” “risk decentralization,” and “social capital.” Furthermore, policy recommendations aligned with operational continuity, market adaptation, and the prevention of business cessation are proposed. The proposed framework can assist policymakers in targeting support mechanisms more effectively and guide managers in selecting adaptation strategies to mitigate operational vulnerability.
Keywords
Subjects
