sepehr jafarpour; hamid Khodadad hosseini; Asadollah Kordnaeij
Volume 27, Issue 1 , March 2023, , Pages 92-116
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to analyze the robustness strategies for businesses that intend to have a successful performance in the future of Iran's smart agriculture sector. For this purpose, using an integrated foresight method based on scenario development, alternative futures for Iran's agriculture ...
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The purpose of this article is to analyze the robustness strategies for businesses that intend to have a successful performance in the future of Iran's smart agriculture sector. For this purpose, using an integrated foresight method based on scenario development, alternative futures for Iran's agriculture were extracted for a ten-year period (2032). The methods of Global Business Network (GBN), Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and MICMAC were used. Four main drivers were identified, which are cooperation and participation through Strong national and local institutions, versus lobby and pressure groups, as well as the development of technological infrastructure and innovation growth versus the immaturity of the innovation ecosystem. With the meaningful combination of drivers, three possible and meaningful paths to the future of Iran's agriculture were extracted according to the opinion of experts: smart agriculture, state agriculture and traditional agriculture. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies were analyzed by in-depth interviews with experts as well as a library search that can guarantee strategic robustness in any scenario in the next 10 years. The main result at the macro level is that cooperation and partnership play a major role in shaping the future of Iran's agriculture, as well as strategic robustness, due to their key role in integrating resources and capabilities. Finally, by applying robustness criteria, the robustness strategies were ranked. Strategic collaborations and the development of practical innovations were the most robustness strategies, and independent investment and the development of advanced innovations were recognized as the weakest strategies.
Esmail Ahmadi; Mohammad Hasan Maleki; Rasoul Sanavi fard; Mohammad Reza Fathi
Volume 24, Issue 1 , March 2020, , Pages 59-79
Abstract
The efficient supply chain plays an important role in the production and distribution of oil products and petrochemicals in the country. The present study seeks to identify key drivers and future scenarios for the oil supply chain. Orientation of the study is, applied and in terms of methodology is considered ...
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The efficient supply chain plays an important role in the production and distribution of oil products and petrochemicals in the country. The present study seeks to identify key drivers and future scenarios for the oil supply chain. Orientation of the study is, applied and in terms of methodology is considered multiple. To this end, firstly, using the literature review and expert interviews, key drivers of the future of the oil supply chain were determined and then, by applying the binomial test, these factors were screened. By using GBN technique and considering three indicators of specialty, intensity and consensus, among the 10 factors that were screened, six key factors were selected for scenario analysis. For final screening of the selected factors in the GBN method was applied DEMATEL. Finally, due to the degree of influence of key factors, two factors of foreign sanctions and macroeconomic policies related to anti-fragility were selected for mapping scenarios. With regard to these two drivers, research scenarios include: closed supply chain, fragile supply chain, anti-fragile supply chain, dynamic supply chain. To map the plausible scenarios of the research, CATOWE's tool of SSM was used.
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Volume 14, Issue 4 , March 2011, , Pages 49-78
Abstract
Information systems decisions are of the main concerns of managers.
Existence of uncertainties and different objectives and attributes influence
the quality of decisions. Environmental uncertainties can challenge the
quality of IS investment decisions. Investment decisions, made without any
respect ...
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Information systems decisions are of the main concerns of managers.
Existence of uncertainties and different objectives and attributes influence
the quality of decisions. Environmental uncertainties can challenge the
quality of IS investment decisions. Investment decisions, made without any
respect to environmental changes, will loose their effectiveness as time
passes. IS investment decisions require attention to different attributes such
as return on investment, strategic competitiveness and user satisfaction.
Multi-attribute decision making (MADM) approaches can play an important
role to make investment decisions. This study aims to integrate scenario
planning (as a tool to meet environmental uncertainties), Axiomatic Design
(MADM approach) and Fuzzy Delphi method (experts opinions acquiring
and consensus tool) as a Hybrid Model to propose a new methodology to
make IS investment decisions about the outsourcing or insourcing of the
development of the information systems. A case study in IS investment has
been done. The case is about the selection of an ERP system in Iranian
National Oil Company (NOC).
Payam Hanafizadeh; Seyyed Mohammad Arabi; Ali Hashemi
Volume 10, Issue 20 , June 2006, , Pages 137-170
Abstract
Time and uncertainty play a crucial role in the strategic planning process [1]. Many industries have collapsed or been knocked out of the competition due to unforeseen able changes in the environment and their forecast about the future failed. Organizations are faced with unpredictable changes in new ...
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Time and uncertainty play a crucial role in the strategic planning process [1]. Many industries have collapsed or been knocked out of the competition due to unforeseen able changes in the environment and their forecast about the future failed. Organizations are faced with unpredictable changes in new technologies, products and market places and their planned strategies are not able to respond to such a dynamic and changeable environment. These sorts of pressures are increasing in future because of the rapid developments of technology, economics and community.
Needless to say, the future is not predictable but it is noteworthy that organizations can prepare themselves to face such changes and this readiness results in competitive advantages. The more the uncertainties, the more considerable the competitive advantages of organizations devised robust and stable strategies against uncertainty will be.
This paper aims at introducing a method that enables organizations to draw up robust strategies in uncertain situations and leads to formulation of strategies to immunize them against environment changes.
The method put forth in this paper has combined 'scenario planning method' and 'fuzzy inference system' with traditional strategic planning by adopting a novel and creative approach. Using the values of uncertain factors in the external environment, this method designs some probable forthcoming scenarios of the organization and then based on fuzzy information defined by experts for fuzzy inference systems, defines a robust strategy to deal with the designed scenarios.
This method assists a manager and an organizational strategic planner in their evaluations of future environment and provides them with deep understanding of their
planned strategies to keep their competitive advantages in the unstable and unsettled future.