Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 PhD Student in Industrial Strategy, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Prof., Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant prof., Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Recently, water has become a scarce resource in many countries, particularly in Iran. This study examines sustainable development strategies in the water sector and the agricultural industry, with the main aim of enhancing water consumption efficiency through the design of effective strategies. To achieve this goal, two methods of exploratory scenario writing and backcasting were employed. In the first phase, key scenarios were identified and critical decisions were extracted using exploratory scenario writing. Subsequently, the priority of these decisions was assessed through robustness analysis. In the next phase, backcasting was utilized to outline a desirable future and identify pathways to achieve it. These pathways were evaluated using the Delphi technique to identify the most significant ones. The results from both methods indicate the robustness of options emphasizing investment in water infrastructure, development of drought and salinity-resistant crops, and increased water recycling. It was also found that these two methods complement each other, providing complementary pathways and decisions. This research can serve as a solid foundation for policymakers and planners in managing sustainable water resources in the agricultural sector.
Keywords
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