نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت پروژه، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه مهر البرز، تهران، ایران

4 دانشیار، گروه آمار، دانشکده علوم پایه، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران

5 کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی عمران، مدیر پروژه‌های راه ‌و ساختمان، شرکت نفت مناطق مرکزی ایران

چکیده

پروژه‌های ساخت‌وساز نقش مهمی در رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی و پیشرفت اقتصادی کشورها ایفا می‌کنند. باوجوداین، پروژه‌های ساخت‌وساز همواره با دامنه متنوعی از ریسک‌ها روبه‌رو هستند. اگر این ریسک‌ها در ابتدای پروژه به‌خوبی شناسایی و ارزیابی نشوند و استراتژی‌های مناسبی برای پاسخ به آن‌ها انتخاب نشود، به علل بالقوه ادعاهایی تبدیل می‌شوند که زمینه‌ساز بروز اختلاف میان طرف‌های پروژه خواهند بود. این پژوهش مدلی موسوم به علت ادعا ـ خواسته ادعا را برای شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسک‌ها ارائه می‌دهد و از آن برای قراردادهای سه‌عاملی پروژه‌های ساخت‌وساز‌ شرکت نفت مناطق مرکزی ایران استفاده می‌کند. پس از تحلیل مضمون 10 مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختاریافته با صاحب‌نظران و تطبیق یافته‌ها با پیشینه پژوهش، 32 علت ادعا و 26 خواسته ادعای پیمانکار شناسایی شد. سپس با تعیین احتمال تجربی وقوع علل ادعاها، احتمال تجربی وقوع خواسته‌های ادعاها و برآورد تجربی زیان بالقوه هر خواسته توسط 18 نفر از خبرگان طرفین کارفرما و پیمانکار، ماتریس علت ‌ادعا ـ‌ خواسته ادعا شکل گرفت. تحلیل این ماتریس توسط قاعده بیز منجر به شناسایی ارجح‌ترین علل و خواسته‌های ادعا شد. مدل ادعاـ‌محور مبتنی بر نظرات خبرگان این پژوهش با کمک به شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسک‌های منجر به دعاوی پیمانکار، مبنای مناسبی را برای انتخاب استراتژی‌های پاسخ به این ریسک‌ها در اختیار کارفرما قرار می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Risks Identification and Assessment in Construction Projects: A Claim-based Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mozhgan Sadat Masoudi 1
  • Amirali Foukerdi 2
  • Hadi Talkhabi 3
  • Seyed Kamran Ghoreishi 4
  • Gholamreza Ghadiri Ashkzari 5

1 Master of Project Management, Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Qom, Qom, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Qom University, Qom, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Project and Construction Management, Technical and Engineering Faculty, Mehr Alborz University, Tehran, Iran

4 Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Faculty of Basic Sciences, Qom University, Qom, Iran

5 Master of Civil Engineering, manager of road and construction projects, Iran Central Regions Oil Company

چکیده [English]

Construction projects play an important role in the growth of GDP and economic progress of countries. However, these projects always face a diverse range of risks. If these risks are not identified and evaluated properly at the beginning of the project, and appropriate risk response strategies are not selected considering them, they become the causes of claims that can be the basis for disputes. This research presents a claim cause – claim request model to identify and evaluate risks, and applies it to the design-bid-build construction projects in the Iranian Central Oil Fields Company. After conducting a thematic analysis with 10 semi-structured interviews, 32 claim causes and 26 claim requests of the contractors were identified. Then, by estimation of the probability of occurrence of causes and requests, and the potential loss of each request by the experts, the claim cause – claim request matrix was formed. The analysis of this matrix by Bayes' rule led to the identification of the most preferred claim causes and claim requests. The findings of the research can be the basis for adopting risk response strategies. The claim-based opinion-experts model of this study helps owner to identify and evaluate the risks that lead to the contractor's claims, and provides the owner with a suitable basis for choosing response strategies to these risks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bayes theorem
  • Claim cause
  • Claim request
  • Construction Project
  • Thematic Analysis
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