نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد قم، قم، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران
3 استادیار، گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد قم، قم، ایران
4 استادیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی و مالی، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، پردیس فارابی دانشگاه تهران، قم، ایران
چکیده
زنجیرهتأمین کارآمد نقش مهمی در تولید و توزیع محصولات و فراوردههای نفتی و پتروشیمی در کشور دارد. تحقیق حاضر به دنبال شناسایی پیشرانهای کلیدی و سناریوهای آینده زنجیرهتأمین صنعت نفت است. پژوهش حاضر از منظر جهتگیری، کاربردی و از بعد روششناسی چندگانه است. بدین منظور ابتدا با استفاده از مرور پیشینه و مصاحبه با خبرگان، پیشرانهای کلیدی مؤثر روی آینده زنجیرهتأمین صنعت نفت تعیین شدند و سپس با بکارگیری آزمون دوجملهای این عوامل غربال گردید. با بکارگیری تکنیک عدمقطعیت بحرانی و در نظر گرفتن سه شاخص تخصص، شدت اهمیت و اجماع از میان 10 عامل غربال شده شش عامل کلیدی برای سناریونگاری انتخاب شدند. برای غربال نهایی عوامل منتخب تکنیک عدمقطعیت بحرانی از تکنیک دیمتل استفاده شد. در نهایت با توجه به درجه تأثیرگذاری عوامل کلیدی، دو عامل تحریمهای خارجی و سیاستهای کلان اقتصادی در رابطه با مقاومسازی برای نگاشت سناریوها انتخاب شدند. با توجه به این دو پیشران چهار سناریوی زنجیرهتأمین بسته، زنجیرهتأمین شکننده، زنجیرهتأمین مقاوم و زنجیرهتأمین پویا توسعه داده شدند. برای نگاشت سناریوهای باورپذیر تحقیق از ابزار CATOWE روششناسی سیستمهای نرم استفاده شد.
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Presenting a model for future study of supply chain in oil industry with soft approach
نویسندگان [English]
- Esmail Ahmadi 1
- Mohammad Hasan Maleki 2
- Rasoul Sanavi fard 3
- Mohammad Reza Fathi 4
چکیده [English]
The efficient supply chain plays an important role in the production and distribution of oil products and petrochemicals in the country. The present study seeks to identify key drivers and future scenarios for the oil supply chain. Orientation of the study is, applied and in terms of methodology is considered multiple. To this end, firstly, using the literature review and expert interviews, key drivers of the future of the oil supply chain were determined and then, by applying the binomial test, these factors were screened. By using GBN technique and considering three indicators of specialty, intensity and consensus, among the 10 factors that were screened, six key factors were selected for scenario analysis. For final screening of the selected factors in the GBN method was applied DEMATEL. Finally, due to the degree of influence of key factors, two factors of foreign sanctions and macroeconomic policies related to anti-fragility were selected for mapping scenarios. With regard to these two drivers, research scenarios include: closed supply chain, fragile supply chain, anti-fragile supply chain, dynamic supply chain. To map the plausible scenarios of the research, CATOWE's tool of SSM was used.
کلیدواژهها [English]
- Future Study
- Scenario Planning
- Plausible Scenarios
- Key Drivers
- Soft Approach
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