بررسی نگرش های مدیریتی کلان در تولید مرکبات ایران با رویکرد مدلسازی پویایی سیستم تحت مداخلات تحقیق و توسعه و جنبه های پایداری

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه خواجه نصیر الدین طوسی، تهران، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه خواجه نصیر الدین طوسی،تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه، توجه به جنبه­های اجتماعی و زیست محیطی علاوه بر جنبه اقتصادی باعث پررنگ شدن زنجیره تامین پایدار گشته است. از طرفی، نگرش­های مدیریتی کلان جهت سودآوری به عنوان یک جزء کلیدی در استواری صنایع مختلف از جمله تولید مرکبات مطرح است. در تحقیق حاضراز طریق یک دیدگاه سیستماتیک به بررسی تاثیر محرک سودآوری بر عوامل مرتبط با آن با استفاده از مدل پویایی سیستم تحت نگرش­های مدیریتی پرداخته شده است. بدین منظور یک مدل پویایی سیستم ارائه شده است و به منظور اعتبار سنجی، رفتار آن با مشاهدات تاریخی جمع آوری شده مقایسه شده است. تحلیل های آماری نشان دهنده تبعیت مدل شبیه سازی شده با حالت واقعی آن است. برای بررسی بیشتر شبیه سازی مونت کارلو برای متغیرهای حساس انجام شده است و در نهایت مدل پیشنهادی تحت سناریوهای مختلف اجرا و بررسی گردیده است. در دفعات مختلف شبیه سازی نشان داده شده است که سیاست­های مداخلاتی همچون تحقیق و توسعه (R&D) باعث افزایش تولید مرکبات ودیگر متغیرهای کلیدی می شود.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating macro management attitudes in citrus production of Iran using a system dynamic modeling approach under R&D interventions and sustainability aspects

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nasser Safaie 1
  • Armin Cheraghalipour 1
  • emad roghanian 2
چکیده [English]

Todays, in addition to the economic aspect, paying attention to the social and environmental aspects has contributed to the sustainability of the supply chain. On the other hand, macro management attitudes for profitability are considered as a key component in the robustness of various industries, including citrus production. In this research, using a system dynamics approach we examine the effect of profitability on its related factors through a systematic view. For this purpose, a system dynamical model is presented and in order to validate it, its behavior is compared with historical collected observations. Statistical analysis indicates that the simulated model is adhered to its actual state. To further explore the Monte Carlo simulation is performed for sensitive variables, and finally, the proposed model is implemented under different employed scenarios. In different times of simulations have shown that several interventions such as research and development (R&D) can increase the citrus production and other key variables.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • system dynamics modeling
  • R&
  • D interventions
  • citrus production
  • Sustainability
  • simulation

مراجع

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پژوهش های مدیریت در ایران
دوره 23، شماره 4
دی 1398
صفحه 55-79

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