نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترای کارآفرینی، دانشکده کارآفرینی، دانشگاه تهران
2 دانشیار دانشکده کارآفرینی، دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
ارزشیابی فرصت های کارآفرینی از مصادیق مهم تصمیم گیری در شرایط عدم اطمینان است. این ارزشیابی ها اغلب در محیطی پیچیده، پویا و تحت عدم اطمینان حقیقی صورت می گیرند. در عدم اطمینان حقیقی بر خلاف ریسک و ابهام، نه تنها نتایج ممکن و احتمال وقوع هر یک از نتایج از پیش شناخته شده نیست بلکه برآورد احتمالات و کسب شناخت براحتی امکان پذیر نمی باشد. در این شرایط ارزشیابی کارآفرینان از فرصت ها بر اساس اطلاعات حداقلی و نادقیق بوده و با متغیر های کلامی بیان می شود که مرز روشنی ندارند و فازی هستند. از این رو، هدف از این پژوهش ارائه مدلی برای ارزشیابی فرصت های کارآفرینی در شرایط عدم اطمینان با رویکرد فازی است. برای این منظور، محققان ارزشیابی فرصت را در قالب یک مسأله تصمیم گیری چند معیاره-چند خبره طرح نموده و با استفاده از روش غربال گری فازی به بررسی آن پرداخته اند. پژوهش متشکل از دو بخش است: بخش اول از طریق مرور سیستماتیک ادبیات به توصیف راهکارهای رایج کارآفرینان برای ارزشیابی فرصت در شرایط عدم اطمینان می پردازد و بخش دوم، به ارائه راهکار و مدلی برای ارزشیابی فرصت ها در شرایط مذکور متمرکز شده است. جهت آزمون مدل پیشنهادی، دوازده فرصت کارآفرینی در یک شرکت متوسط توسط پانزده خبره مورد ارزشیابی قرار گرفت که در نتیجه آن دو فرصت (O6, O11) در میان سایر فرصت ها از ارزشیابی بالاتری برخوردار شده و کاندیدای مناسبی برای پیگیری می باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Introducing a model for evaluating entrepreneurial opportunities based on fuzzy approach
نویسندگان [English]
- seyedeh elahe adel rastkhiz 1
- Ali Mobini Dehkordi 2
- jahangir yadollahi farsi 2
چکیده [English]
Evaluating entrepreneurial opportunities exemplifies the decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. These evaluations mainly have been done in a complex and dynamic environment under true uncertainty. In contrast to risk and ambiguity, in true uncertainty not only all potential outcomes and their assigned probabilities are unknown, but also it is not possible easily to estimate the probabilities and acquire knowledge about the results. In these situations, entrepreneurs evaluate opportunities based on minimal and inaccurate information, which is described by fuzzy variables, i.e. linguistic variables that do not have any clear boundaries. Hence, adopting a fuzzy approach, the purpose of this paper is to propose a model for evaluating entrepreneurial opportunities under conditions of uncertainty. This study is the first using fuzzy screening to formulate opportunity evaluation as a Multi-Expert Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (ME-MCDM) problem and it is innovative in this research area. In doing so, first, through a systematic literature review and focus group the authors identified entrepreneurs’ current solutions for evaluating opportunities under true uncertainty. Then, a ME-MCDM model has been suggested to evaluate opportunities and select between them. The model is based on fuzzy screening method and evaluates 12 opportunities by 15 experts in a medium entrepreneurial firm. R software has been used to perform calculations. With regard to experts’ aggregate evaluations, findings show that O6 and O11 have higher rating (better evaluation) among opportunities and considered as appropriate candidates for pursuing.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- opportunity evaluation
- Uncertainty
- multi-criteria decision-making
- Systematic Review
- Fuzzy screening
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