نویسنده

دانشیار گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

چکیده

با تشدید رقابت حفظ مشتری هزینه‌ای به‌مراتب کمتر از جذب مشتری جدید دارد. بر اساس نتایج مطالعات بانک‌ها و مؤسسات مالی به‌طور میانگین سالیانه حدود 25 درصد از مشتریان خود را از دست می‌دهند. درنظام بانکی کشور ما نیز به دنبال خصوصی‌سازی، گسترش مؤسسات مالی، تنوع ارائه خدمات بانکی و آسانی جابه‌جایی برای مشتری، یکی از دغدغه‌های اصلی مدیران ریزش مشتری می‌باشد. کاهش 1 درصد نرخ ریزش مشتری منجر به 6 درصد افزایش در میزان سود می‌شود. هدف پژوهش حاضر تبیین علی عوامل مؤثر بر ریزش مشتری بانکی است که از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر شیوه گردآوری داده‌ها، توصیفی - پیمایشی می‌باشد. جامعه آماری مشتریان بانک‌های منتخب شهر سمنان است که با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری اتفاقی طبقه‌بندی شده با سهمیه برابر تعداد 384 نفر نمونه انتخاب شد. داده‌ها با پرسشنامه استاندارد گردآوری و به کمک نرم‌افزار ویژوال پی ال اس تحلیل شدند. نتایج نشان داد کیفیت نتیجه با ضریب مسیر855/. بیشتر از سایر متغیرها بر ادراک نامطلوب از بانک تأثیر داشته است. همچنین تأثیر مثبت و معنادار نارسایی خدمات، کیفیت تعامل و پاسخگویی بر ادراک نامطلوب مشتریان از بانک تأیید شد. ادراک نامطلوب از طریق میانجی‌گری متغیر خشم مشتری (با ضریب مسیر 713/0) منجر به ریزش مشتری از بانک (با ضریب مسیر 819/0) گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing a Structural Model for Customer Churn in Governmental Banks: Case of Semnan Governmental Banks

نویسنده [English]

  • Azim Zarei

چکیده [English]

Increasing competition led to lesser cost of customer retention than attract new ones. Based on studies, banks and financial institutions lose about 25 percent of their customers annually. In banking system of Iran, privatization and increasing financial institutions as well as diversification of banking services and easy switching for the customer are principal concern of customer churn managers. 1% of Customer churn decreased result in a 6% increase in profit. This study aims to explain causal factors affecting banking customer churn. This paper is practical and it is descriptive-survey. Population is governmental bank customers in Semnan city which sample of 384 were selected using a stratified random sampling. Data were collected by standard questionnaire and were analyzed using Visual PLS. Results showed “weaknesses in quality of results” by a path coefficient of 0.855 which was higher than other variables effecting negative perception of bank. Also, significant and positive impact of “service failure”, “weakness in interaction” and “lack of responsibility” on “unfavorable perception of Banks’ customers” was confirmed. “Unfavorable perception” through the mediation of “customers rage” (with path coefficient of 0.713), are leading to churn of bank customers (with path coefficient of 0.819), respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Customer churn
  • customers rage
  • negative perception
  • Quality
  • Responsibility
[1]   Assel H. (2008) Consumer behavior and Marketing Action, PWS KENT publishing Company, Boston MA, U.S of America.
[2]    Reynolds KL, Hams LC, (2009) "Dysfunctional customer behavior severity: an empirical examination"; Journal of Retailing, 85(3), pp. 321-355.
[3]    Wirtz J., McColl-Kennedy JR. (2010) "Opportunistic customer complaining during service recovery"; International Journal of Marketing Studies, 38(5): pp. 54-75.
[4]    McColl-Kennedy, Janet R. Patterson, Paul G., Smith, Amy K. and Brady, Michael K. (2009) "Customer rage episodes: Emotions, expressions and behaviors"; Journal of Retailing, Vol. 85, Issue 2, pp. 222-237.
[5]    Kang C. Pei-ji SH (2008) "Customer churn prediction based on SVM-RFE", International Seminar on Business and Information Management.
[6]    Kristof Coussement, Koen W. De Bock, (2013) "Customer churn prediction in the online gambling industry: The beneficial effect of ensemble learning"; Journal of Business Research, 66 (2013): pp. 1629–1636.
[7]    Nathaniel D., Line Lydia Hanks, Woo Gon Kim, (2016) "Hedonic adaptation and satiation: Understanding switching behavior in the restaurant industry"; International Journal of Hospitality Management, 52, pp. 143–153.
[8]    Tamaddoni Jahromi A., Stanislav Stakhovych, Michael Ewing (2014) "Managing B2B customer churn, retention and profitability"; Industrial Marketing Management, Vol. 43, Issue 7, pp.1258–1268.
[9]    Szu-Yu C., George C. Shen H. Yu-Tsun C, (2016) "Multichannel service providers' strategy: Understanding customers' switching and free-riding behavior"; Journal of Business Research, Vol. 69, Issue 6, pp. 2226-2232.
[10] Jiraporn S., Janet R., McColl-Kennedy, Paul P. (2015) "Unpacking customer rage elicitation: A dynamic model", Journal of Service Research, 66 (3): pp. 25-37.
[11] Caruana A., Money A.H., Berthon P.R., (2009) "Service quality and Satisfaction"; European Journal of Marketing, 34 (11), pp. 1338-1352.
[12] Gerrard P., Cunningham J. B., (2012) "Consumer switching behaviour in the Asia banking market"; Journal of Service Marketing, 18(2/3), pp. 215 - 223.
[13] Coussement K., Vanden Poel (2008) "Churn prediction in subscription services: An application of support vector machines while comparing two parameter-selection techniques"; Expert Systems with Applications, 34, pp. 313–327.
[14] Patterson PG, McColl-Kennedy JR, Smith AK, Lu Z., (2013) "Customer rage: Triggers, tipping points and take-outs"; California Manage Review, 52(l): pp.6-28.
[15] Pendharkar P. (2009) "Genetic algorithm based neural network approaches for predicting churn in cellular wireless network services"; Expert Systems with Applications, 36, pp. 6714–6720.
[16] Kate L. Daunt, Lioyd C. Harris, (2011) "Customer acting badly: Evidence from the hospital industry"; Journal of Business Research, 64, pp. 1034-1042.
[17] Feinberg R., Rhee E. (2012) "Relationships and ndividuals’ bank switching behavior"; Journal of Economic Psychology, 25, pp.501-27.
[18] Grainer Marc, Charles H. Noble, Mary Jo Bitner and Scott M. Broetzmann (2014) "What unhappy customers want"; Sloan Management Review, 55 (3), pp. 31-6.
[19] Gelbrich Katja (2010) "Anger, frustration and helplessness after service failure: Coping strategies and effective informational support"; Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 38 (5): pp. 567-85.
[20] Mohamadyari Z. (2014) "Exploring the mediator role of customer rage in the relationship between banking regulation with customers running away from Iran bank"; International Congress of Management, Tehran (in Persian).
[21] Chen S. (2016) "The gamma CUSUM chart method for online customer churn prediction"; Electronic Commerce Research and Applications, Vol. 17, pp. 99–111.
[22] Sepehri M., Norouzi A., Teimour Pour B., Choubdar S. (2011) "Discover the reasons for turning away a customer of banking services by combining data mining methods and survey"; Management Research in Iran, Vol. 15, Issue 4, pp.98-126, (in Persian).
[23] Markus B., Carly M. F., Vikas M., David L. M., (2015) "How procedural, financial and relational switching costs affect customer satisfaction, repurchase intentions, and repurchasebehavior: A meta-analysis"; International Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol. 32, Issue 2, pp. 226-229.
[24] Mohammadyari Z., Poor Ashraf Y.,. Toolabi Z. (2014) Rage, running away and falling consumer in bank. International congress of management, Tehran (in Persian).
[25] Michael D. W. (2014) "Are low-cost carrier passengers less likely to complain about service quality? "; Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 35, pp. 64-71.
[26] Seyyed Javadin R. (2006) "Determine the factors affecting customer satisfaction Export Development Bank of Iran using the concepts of customer relationship management"; Business Review Issue 18, pp. 91-82 (in Persian).
[27] Varaste Sh (2010) "Using decision trees in modeling of customer churn (industry unconventional case study)"; Journal of Industrial Engineering, Vol. 44, Issue 4, pp. 127 -139 (in Persian).
[28] Afsar A., Hoshdar Mahjoub R., Minaei B. (2013) "Customer credit clustering to provide appropriate facilities"; Iranian Journal of Management, Vol., Issue 4, pp. 1- 24 (in Persian).
[29] Emami L. (2015) "Providing a model for the national bank customer churn by using structural equation"; Journal of Marketing Management, Issue 26, pp. 25- 47 (in Persian).
[30] May-Ching D., Yuan-Shuh L., (2016) "Handling online service recovery: Effects of perceived justice on online games"; Telematics and Informatics, Vol. 33, Issue 4, pp. 881-895.
[31] Vincent C., Mukesh K., (2014) "Satisficing data envelopment analysis: An application to SERVQUAL efficiency"; Measurement, Vol. 51, pp. 71-80.
[32] Azar A., Nahavandi B., Rajabzadeh A. (2009) "Design and improving of quality function deployment using fuzzy analytic network process and goal programming"; Management Research in Iran, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 37-68 (in Persian).
[33] Miller J. L., Craighead, C. W., Karwan K. R, (2000) "Service recovery: A framework and empirical investigation"; Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 18, No.1, pp.387- 400.
 [34] Safari Kahreh M., Khodadad Hosseini H., Azar A. (2015) "Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) Analysis for Customer Segmentation and Profitability Management: A Case Study of an Iranian Bank"; Management Research in Iran, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 87-110 (in Persian).
[35] Andreasen A. R. (2010) "Consumer complaints and redress: What we know and what we don’t know", The frontier of research in the consumer interest. Columbia (MO): American Council on Consumer Interests, pp. 675-722.
[36] Amir Shahi M. (2009) "Identify factors affecting confidence in the bank's key customer’s entrepreneur in Tehran"; Iranian Journal of Management Studies, Vol. 4, Issue 13, pp. 61 -76 (in Persian).
[37] Amini M., Shahabi S. (2009) "The study of effect of Gender on the loyalty of customers using relationship marketing approach"; Journal of Evolution & Development Management, Issue 4, pp. 73- 83 (in Persian).
[38] Hamidi Zade M., Haji Karimi A., Naeiji. M. (2011) "Define and design a sustainable customer loyalty model of e-commerce: A study on retail websites"; Journal of Marketing Research New, Second Edition, pp. 79- 92 (in Persian).
[39] Schneider B., Bowen DE (1999) "Understanding customer delight and outrage"; Sloan Manage Review, pp. 39-45.
[40] Kim G., Shin B., Lee H.G.(2006) "A study of factors that affect user intentions toward email service switching"; Information & Management, Vol. 43, pp. 884-893.
[41] Ignacio C., et al (2015) "Linking unlearning with service quality through learning processes in the Spanish banking industry"; Journal of Business Research, Vol. 68, Issue 7, pp. 1450-1457.
[42] Moshabaki A., Khoddami S., Moradi H. (2012) "Model of the overall perceived value of mass customization products based on theories of interpersonal differentiation value"; Management Researches in Iran, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 217-237 (in Persian).
[43]Azar A., Ghollamzadeh R., Ghanavati M. (2012) Path-structural modelling in management: Smart PLS application, Tehran: Negah danesh, (in Persian).
[44] Matthews C., Murray D. (2007) "Helping bank customers switch: A case study"; Journal of Financial Services Marketing, 11(4), pp. 360-370.
[45] Gerrard P., Cunningham J. B. (2010)" The bank switching behaviour of Singapore’s graduates"; Journal of Financial Services Marketing, 5(2), pp.118-28.