مدل پیش‌بینی هوشمند قصد و رفتار خرید در بازار محصولات الکترونیکی بازسازی‌شده با شبکه‌های عصبی: شواهدی از ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت بازرگانی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران.

10.48311/mri.2026.28271
چکیده
با رشد زباله‌های الکترونیکی و محدودیت منابع، محصولات بازسازی‌شده مانند گوشی هوشمند و لپ‌تاپ گزینه‌ای پایدار و مقرون‌به‌صرفه‌اند، اما الگوی پذیرش آن‌ها در ایران نیازمند تبیین دقیق است. این پژوهش با تلفیق نظریه رفتار برنامه‌ریزی‌شده آجزن و مدل رفتار نوع‌دوستانه شوارتز، چارچوبی پیش‌بینی‌محور مبتنی بر شبکه‌های عصبی مصنوعی برای برآورد قصد و رفتار خرید ارائه می‌کند. مطالعه توصیفی- کاربردی، پیمایشی و تک‌مقطعی است؛ داده‌ها از ۴۰۰ مصرف‌کننده ایرانیِ گوشی هوشمند و لپ‌تاپ در پاییز و زمستان ۱۴۰۳ با نمونه‌گیری در دسترس و پرسشنامه پنج‌درجه‌ای گردآوری شد. پس از پاک‌سازی، بازکُدگذاری آیتم‌های منفی و نرمال‌سازی، شبکه‌های چندلایه در متلب با تفکیک ۷۰/۱۵/۱۵ آموزش یافت و علاوه بر پیش‌بینی، اهمیت نسبی سازه‌ها با تحلیل حساسیت محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی توان پیش‌بینی قابل اتکا برای قصد و رفتار خرید دارد؛ در رتبه‌بندی اهمیت، کنترل رفتاریِ درک‌شده و نگرش نسبت به رفتار بیشترین سهم را در تبیین رفتار خرید داشتند و قصد خرید حلقه پیونددهنده مؤثری میان سازه‌های شناختی و رفتار واقعی باقی ماند، در حالی‌که هنجار ذهنی، هنجار اخلاقی و آگاهی از پیامد اثرات مثبت اما ملایم‌تری نشان دادند. این رویکرد یادگیری‌محور، فراتر از تبیین‌های خطی، تصویر دقیق‌تری از الگوهای نهفته بین سازه‌ها و برآورد مطمئن‌تری از احتمال وقوع رفتار خرید در بافت ایران فراهم می‌کند و نشان می‌دهد سیاست‌های اثربخش باید هم‌زمان بر تقویت احساس توانمندی و سهولت عمل، ساده‌سازی فرایند خرید و کاهش ریسک خدمات پس از فروش، و شکل‌دهی نگرش مثبت مبتنی بر منافع اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی متمرکز شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله English

Intelligent Predictive Model of Purchase Intention and Behavior in the Refurbished Electronics Market Using Neural Networks: Evidence from Iran

نویسندگان English

marzieh soltani 1
Ameneh Khadivar 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate of Business Administration, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, AlZahra University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Refurbished electronics such as smartphones and laptops are increasingly positioned as sustainable and affordable options amid rising e-waste and resource constraints, yet consumer acceptance in Iran remains insufficiently understood. This study integrates Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior and Schwartz’s Norm Activation framework to propose a prediction-oriented model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) for estimating purchase intention and behavior and for quantifying the relative contribution of theoretical constructs. The research is descriptive–applied, survey-based, and cross-sectional; data were collected from 400 Iranian consumers of smartphones and laptops in Fall–Winter 2024 using convenience sampling and a five-point questionnaire. After data cleaning, reverse-coding of negatively worded items, and min–max normalization, multilayer ANNs were trained in MATLAB with a 70/15/15 split for training/validation/testing. Beyond prediction, variable importance was derived via sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that the ANN provides reliable out-of-sample prediction for both intention and behavior. In the ranking of drivers, perceived behavioral control and attitude toward the behavior contribute most to explaining purchase behavior, while purchase intention remains an effective bridge from cognitive constructs to actual behavior. Subjective norms, personal norms (morality), and awareness of consequences exert positive but more modest effects. The learning-based approach offers a finer-grained picture of latent patterns than linear explanations and yields a more dependable estimate of purchase likelihood in the Iranian context. Managerially, effective policies should jointly strengthen perceived capability and ease of action (e.g., simpler purchase processes and lower after-sales risk) and build favorable attitudes grounded in economic and environmental benefits to increase acceptance of

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Refurbished electronic products
Purchase intention and behavior
Artificial neural networks
Theory of Planned Behavior
Norm Activation Model
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