Management Research in Iran

Analyzing the Impact of Early Warning Signs and Causes of Out-of-Sequence Work on Industrial Construction Project Productivity

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Amirali Foukerdi 1
Seyed Kamran Ghoreishi 2
Fatemeh Taghimolaei 3

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Qom University, Qom, Iran

2 Professor, Statistics Department, Faculty of Basic Sciences, Qom University, Qom, Iran

3 Project Management Graduate, Management Group, Qom University, Qom, Iran

10.48311/mri.2025.27637
Abstract
This study examines the impact of the most prominent early warning signs and causes of out-of-sequence (OOS) work on the productivity of industrial construction projects. Relying on the opinions of 16 industrial construction professionals and using the fuzzy Delphi technique, the most relevant of these signs and causes were identified. Then, using Max-Max and Bayes rules, the impact of this signs and causes on the productivity of industrial construction projects was analyzed. The findings indicated a high level of agreement between the rankings of causes of OOS work and a moderate level of agreement between the rankings of early warning signs, as assessed using both the Bayes and Max-Max approaches. Combining the findings of the two approaches revealed that if any of the following six early warning signs are observed—regardless of which sign precedes the occurrence of any cause of OOS work—it can be expected to lead to substantial decreases in project productivity: increase in drawing revisions, Inexperience in key roles, trending away from baseline progress curve, inadequate transition planning from construction to commissioning, high percentage of rework, and float usage early in schedule. Additionally, among the most obvious causes of OOS work, lack of consideration of stakeholder requirements in project planning, change in design, poor communication between different project parties throughout the project, late delivery from vendors, unrealistic activities duration, and lack of access to full project, respectively, can cause the greatest damage to the productivity of construction projects.

Keywords

Causes
Industrial Construction projects
Early warning signs
Out-of-sequence work
Productivity
[1]    Paulraj, M. S., Nuzhat, S., & Hussain, C. M. (2021). Source reduction and waste minimization. Elsevier: Amsterdam, The Netherlands,
[2]    Dixit, S., Mandal, S. N., Thanikal, J. V., & Saurabh, K. (2018). Construction productivity and construction project performance in Indian construction projects. In M. J. Skibniewski & M. Hajdu (Eds.),‏ Proceedings of the Creative Construction Conference, 379ـ386. Ljubljana, Slovenia: Diamond Congress Ltd. https://doi.org/10.3311/CCC2018-050
[3]    Fulford, R., & Standing, C. (2014). Construction industry productivity and the potential for collaborative practice. International journal of project management, 32(2), 315ـ326. ‏https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.05.007
[4]    Mahamid, I. (2013). Contractor’s perspective toward factors affecting labor productivity in building construction. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 20(5), 446ـ460.‏ https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-08-2011-0074
[5]    Princy, J. D., & Shanmugapriya, S. (2017). A probabilistic fuzzy logic approach to identify productivity factors in Indian construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management, 7(3), 39ـ55.‏ https://doi.org/10.6106/JCEPM.2017.9.29.039
[6]    Alaloul, W. S., Alzubi, K. M., Malkawi, A. B., Al Salaheen, M., & Musarat, M. A. (2022). Productivity monitoring in building construction projects: a systematic review. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 29(7), 2760ـ2785. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-03-2021-0211
[7]    Lim, E. C., & Alum, J. (1995). Construction productivity: issues encountered by contractors in Singapore. International journal of project management, 13(1), 51ـ58.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/0263-7863(95)95704-H
[8]    Zakeri, M., Olomolaiye, P. O., Holt, G. D., & Harris, F. C. (1996). A survey of constraints on Iranian construction operatives’ productivity. Construction Management and Economics, 14(5), 417–426. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461996373287
[9]    Kaming, P. F., Olomolaiye, P. O., Holt, G. D., & Harris, F. C. (1997). Factors influencing craftsmen's productivity in Indonesia. International journal of project management, 15(1), 21ـ30.‏ https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(96)00019-1
[10]    Alwi, S. (2003). Factors influencing construction productivity in the Indonesian context. Proceedings of the 5th Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies; 29 October-1 November, Fukuoka, Japan; 1557-1571. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/4237
[11]    Faridi, A. S., & El‐Sayegh, S. M. (2006). Significant factors causing delay in the UAE construction industry. Construction management and economics, 24(11), 1167ـ1176.‏ https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190600827033
[12]    Doloi, H. (2008). Application of AHP in improving construction productivity from a management perspective. Construction Management and Economics, 26(8), 841ـ854.‏ https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190802244789
[13]    Dai, J., Goodrum, P. M., Maloney, W. F., & Srinivasan, C. (2009). Latent structures of the factors affecting construction labor productivity. Journal of construction engineering and management, 135(5), 397ـ406.‏ https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2009)135:5(397)
[14]    ElـGohary, K. M., & Aziz, R. F. (2014). Factors influencing construction labor productivity in Egypt. Journal of management in engineering, 30(1), 1ـ9.‏ https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000168
[15]    Hwang, B. G., Zhu, L., & Ming, J. T. T. (2017). Factors affecting productivity in green building construction projects: The case of Singapore. Journal of Management in Engineering, 33(3), 04016052. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000499
[16]    Hasan, A., Baroudi, B., Elmualim, A., & Rameezdeen, R. (2018). Factors affecting construction productivity: a 30 year systematic review. Engineering, construction and architectural management, 25(7), 916-937. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-02-2017-0035
[17]    Dixit, S. (2021). Impact of management practices on construction productivity in Indian building construction projects: An empirical study. Organization, technology & management in construction: an international journal, 13(1), 2383ـ2390.‏ https://doi.org/10.2478/otmcj-2021-0007
[18]    Awaad, S., Mahdi, I., Mahmoud, D., & Abdelrashid, I. (2022). Factors affecting the productivity of road construction projects in Egypt. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Management, 5(2), 48-53.
[19]    Mahat, N. A. A., Adnan, H., & Yusuwan, N. M. (2021). Analysing Factors Affecting Green Construction Productivity: Exploratory Factor Analysis. International Journal of Sustainable Construction Engineering and Technology, 12(5), 197-204. https://publisher.uthm.edu.my/ojs/index.php/IJSCET/article/view/9970
[20]    Suhail, S. A. (1993). Outـofـlogic progress. Cost Engineering, 35(4), 23.‏
[21]    Waagner, R. (2012). Handling outـofـsequence progress. Rockville, MD: Warner Consultants.‏
[22]    Abotaleb, I. S., ElـAdaway, I. H., Ibrahim, M. W., Hanna, A. S., & Russell, J. S. (2020). Developing a rating score for outـofـsequence construction. Journal of Management in Engineering, 36(3), 04020013. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000765
[23]    Lee, J. S. (2016). Estimating cumulative damages due to disruptions in repetitive construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(11), 04016064.‏ https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001184
[24]    Abotaleb, I. S., & Elـadaway, I. H. (2018). Managing construction projects through dynamic modeling: Reviewing the existing body of knowledge and deriving future research directions. Journal of management in engineering, 34(6), 04018033. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000633
[25]    Ibrahim, M. W., Hanna, A. S., Russell, J. S., Abotaleb, I. S., & ElـAdaway, I. H. (2020). Quantitative analysis of the impacts of outـofـsequence work on project performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(8), 04020090.‏ https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001876
[26]    Abotaleb, I. S., Elـadaway, I. H., Ibrahim, M. W., Hanna, A. S., & Russell, J. S. (2019). Causes, early warning signs, and impacts of outـofـsequence construction: Expertـbased survey analysis. Journal of Management in Engineering, 35(6), 04019030.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000724
[27]    Ye, G., Jin, Z., Xia, B., & Skitmore, M. (2015). Analyzing causes for reworks in construction projects in China. Journal of management in engineering, 31(6), 04014097. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.000034
[28]    Al Saeedi, A. S., & Karim, A. M. (2020). Analyzing the Performance of Mega Construction Projects in Oman: A Study of Selected Projects from Oil & Gas Sector. American International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 2(2), 52-72. https://doi.org/10.46545/aijbms.v2i2.247 
[29]    Mahamid, I. (2020). Study of relationship between rework and labor productivity in Building Construction Projects. Revista de la construcción, 19(1), 30-40. http://dx.doi.org/10.7764/rdlc.19.1.30-41
[30]    Akal, A. Y. (2024). Determining the Stationary Cause of Construction Delay in Highway Projects. Journal of Integrated Engineering and Technology, 1(1), 18-39. https://dx.doi.org/10.21608/jiet.2024.293937.1012
[31]    Gumusburun Ayalp, G., & Arslan, F. (2025). Modeling Critical Rework Factors in the Construction Industry: Insights and Solutions. Buildings, 15(4), 606. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings15040606
[32]    Abotaleb, I. S., & Elـadaway, I. H. (2018). First attempt toward a holistic understanding of the interdependent rippled impacts associated with outـofـsequence work in construction projects: System dynamics modeling approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(9), 04018084. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001539
[33]    Ibbs, W., Berry, M., & Sun, X. (2017). Visualizing skipped and outـofـsequence work. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 9(4), 05017006.‏ https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)LA.1943-4170.0000240
[34]    Williams, T., Klakegg, O., Andersen, B., Walker, D., Magnussen, O., & Onsoyen, L. (2010). Early warning signs in complex projects. In Proceedings of the PMI Research and Education Conference (pp. 1-28). Project Management Institute.
[35]    Nikander, I. O. (2002). Early warnings: A phenomenon in project management. Dissertation for Doctor of Science in Technology. Espoo, Finland: Helsinki University of Technology.
[36]    Ansoff, H. I. (1975). Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California management review, 18(2), 21-33. https://doi.org/10.2307/41164635
[37]    Larsen, A. S. A., Karlsen, A. T., Lund, J. Å., & Andersen, B. S. (2022). Assessment of early warning signs in hospital projects' frontـend phase. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 15(2), 299ـ323. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-06-2021-0156
[38]    Liu, Z. M., & Xie, K. F. (2013, June). Research on the Early-Warning for Construction Project Cost Risk. In 2013 Fourth International Conference on Digital Manufacturing & Automation (pp. 1127-1129). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICDMA.2013.265
[39]    Peng, J. (2016, October). Study on safety risk warning index for highway construction project. In 2016 5th International Conference on Civil, Architectural and Hydraulic Engineering (ICCAHE 2016) (pp. 934-938). Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/iccahe-16.2016.145
[40]    Shokouhi, M. R., Beheshti, M., Fatahi, K., & Rahmati, A. (2018). Identifying Early Warnings in Drilling Projects and Finding their Relationships to the Outcomes and Problems of these Projects in Some Real Cases in Iran. Petroleum Business Review, 2(2), 60-67. https://doi.org/10.22050/pbr.2018.91321
[41]    Giri, M., Zhang, C., Olorunnishola, A., Hada, S., & Pal, U. K. (2025). Developing a Construction Delay Prediction Model as a Delay-Avoidance Strategy for Public Construction Projects. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 17(3), 04525027. https://doi.org/10.1061/JLADAH.LADR-1276
[42]    Shafaat, A., Marbouti, F., & Mahfouz, T. (2023). Early warning system for highway construction projects using GA-SVM. International Journal of Construction Management, 23(14), 2348-2357. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2022.2056805
[43]    Li, G., Ran, R., Fang, J., Peng, H., & Wang, S. (2021). Early Warning for the Construction Safety Risk of Bridge Projects Using a RS‐SSA‐LSSVM Model. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2021(1), 4449451. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/4449451
[44]    Zhang, L., Wang, J., Wu, H., Wu, M., Guo, J., & Wang, S. (2022). Early warning of the construction safety risk of a subway station based on the LSSVM optimized by QPSO. Applied Sciences, 12(11), 5712. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12115712
[45]    Mahdiyar, A., Mohandes, S. R., Durdyev, S., Tabatabaee, S., & Ismail, S. (2020). Barriers to green roof installation: An integrated fuzzy ـ based MCDM approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 269, 122-365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122365
[46]    Wey, W. M. (2019). Constructing urban dynamic transportation planning strategies for improving quality of life and urban sustainability under emerging growth management principles. Sustainable Cities and Society, 44, 275-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.10.015
[47]    Ecer, F., & Pamucar, D. (2020). Sustainable supplier selection: A novel integrated fuzzy best worst method (F ـ BWM) and fuzzy CoCoSo with Bonferroni (CoCoSo'B) multi ـ criteria model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 121981. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121981
[48]    Rejeb, A., Rejeb, K., Keogh, J.G., & Zailani, S. (2022). Barriers to blockchain adoption in the circular economy: a fuzzy delphi and best-worst approach. Sustainability, 14(6), 3611. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063611
[49]    Robert, C. (2007). The Bayesian choice: from decision-theoretic foundations to computational implementation. NY: Springer Science & Business Media.
[50]    Berger, J. (2013). Statistical decision theory: foundations, concepts, and methods. Springer Science & Business Media.
[51]    LaValle, S. M. (2006). Planning Algorithms, Cambridge University Press.
[52]    McKenna, C. K. (1980). Quantitative Methods for Public Decision Making. United Kingdom: McGrawـHill.
[53]    Klakegg, O. J., Williams, T., & Shiferaw, A. T. (2016). Taming the ‘trolls’: Major public projects in the making. International Journal of Project Management, 34(2), 282-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.03.008
[54]    Nikander, I. O., & Eloranta, E. (2001). Project management by early warnings. International journal of project management, 19(7), 385-399. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(00)00021-1
[55]    Lee, S., Tae, S., Jee, N., & Shin, S. (2015). LDA-based model for measuring impact of change orders in apartment projects and its application for prerisk assessment and postevaluation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(7), 04015011. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000971
[56]    Liu, J., Xie, Q., Xia, B., & Bridge, A. J. (2017). Impact of design risk on the performance of design-build projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(6), 04017010. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001299
[57]    Son, J., & Rojas, E. M. (2011). Impact of optimism bias regarding organizational dynamics on project planning and control. Journal of construction engineering and management, 137(2), 147-157. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000260
[58]    Babar, S., Thaheem, M. J., & Ayub, B. (2017). Estimated cost at completion: Integrating risk into earned value management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(3), 04016104. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001245
[59]    Ibrahim, M. W. W. (2018). Improving project performance by mitigating out-of-sequence work and assessing construction readiness. The University of Wisconsin-Madison. https://www.proquest.com/openview/effad3a63655de30e571265cc1e02e7b/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750
 
Management Research in Iran
Volume 29, Issue 3
Autumn 2025
Pages 93-130

Home

Guide for Authors

Submit Manuscript

Reviewers

Contact Us